Texas Democrats, who have not put anyone in the U.S. Senate since 1988, are watching a race in which their candidate, state Representative James Talarico, is running ahead of Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton in several recent polls. The comparison to Beto O’Rourke’s close 2018 run against Senator Ted Cruz is driving much of the debate about what the numbers mean.
Talarico, a 37-year-old former Presbyterian seminarian, faces Paxton, the Trump-endorsed state attorney general, in the November 3 election. Early voting begins October 19.
Key facts at a glance
| Candidates | James Talarico (Democrat) vs. Ken Paxton (Republican) |
| Talarico profile | Texas state representative, 37, former Presbyterian seminarian |
| Paxton profile | Texas attorney general, endorsed by President Donald Trump |
| Latest UT/Texas Politics Project poll | Talarico 42%, Paxton 39%; Libertarian Ted Brown 3%; 14% undecided |
| Latest Emerson College poll | Paxton 47%, Talarico 46% |
| RealClearPolling average (through Aug 13) | Talarico ahead by 1.7 points |
| Key dates | Early voting Oct 19; Election Day Nov 3 |
Where the polls stand
The latest University of Texas/Texas Politics Project survey, conducted August 5-13 among 1,200 registered voters, put Talarico ahead of Paxton by three points, 42 percent to 39 percent. The poll reported a margin of error of plus or minus 2.83 percentage points, so the lead falls close to the survey’s margin of error. The same pollster had Paxton ahead by one point, 43 percent to 42 percent, in June.
A separate Emerson College survey of 1,000 likely voters, taken August 9-10, found Paxton ahead 47 percent to 46 percent, within its three-point margin of error. Emerson’s breakdown showed a sharp generational split: voters under 50 favor Talarico by 15 points, while voters over 50 break for Paxton by 11 points.
The Beto O’Rourke comparison
O’Rourke’s 2018 run is the modern benchmark for whether Texas Democrats can be competitive statewide. He came within 2.6 points of Cruz on Election Day despite trailing in nearly every late poll. The final RealClearPolitics average put Cruz ahead 51.3 percent to 44.5 percent, a lead of 6.8 points, and the final four surveys all showed Cruz ahead by three to ten points. O’Rourke finished about four points closer to Cruz than that final average suggested.
Talarico has posted outright leads in multiple 2026 surveys. The RealClearPolling average through August 13 showed him ahead by 1.7 points, 46 percent to 44.3 percent, though individual results ranged from a five-point advantage for Talarico to a two-point lead for Paxton. Analysts caution that a stronger polling position is not a prediction that he will win.
What the forecast models say
Nate Silver’s FLIPR model recently placed Talarico’s victory probability around 59 to 61 percent, describing the race as somewhere between a toss-up and leans Democratic. Silver pointed to a favorable national environment for Democrats, Paxton’s controversies, and Talarico’s fundraising strength, while warning that fundraising can be a source of overconfidence in an era of nationalized giving.
Traders on the regulated prediction market Kalshi were pricing the race as roughly even at the time of reporting, giving each candidate about a 50 percent chance. The market had attracted more than $9.8 million in trading volume. Prediction markets should not be treated as voter polls, since prices can be shaped by low participation or well-funded traders.
Why the depositions fight matters
Alongside the polling, the Talarico campaign has been pressing a court to unseal two depositions Paxton gave in 2019 and 2022. The campaign’s filing says public reporting suggests Paxton’s testimony raises substantial ethical questions and that Texans have a right to see what he said under oath. The Wall Street Journal has reported that Paxton came close to, or outright admitted, violating attorney-client privilege in one deposition, an assertion the Paxton campaign has dismissed. Paxton’s earlier securities fraud charges were dropped, and he has maintained his innocence.
The full picture of the contest also touches economic ground. NBC News has reported that the volatile Texas Senate race may turn partly on data centers, an issue already drawing attention in the 2026 midterm cycle.
What the video shows
Texas Senate Race Heating Up: Talarico Files Court Motion to Unseal Paxton Depositions
- The Talarico campaign filed the motion on the day of this report, seeking to release depositions Paxton gave in 2019 and 2022.
- The campaign argues public reporting suggests Paxton’s testimony raised ethical questions and that Texans should see his answers under oath before voting.
- A source told MS NOW the campaign believes Paxton admitted to crimes in one deposition, but that source provided no details and MS NOW had no information to back the claim up.
Confirmed vs. speculation
| Confirmed | Talarico leads Paxton 42%-39% in the latest UT/Texas Politics Project poll and Paxton leads 47%-46% in the Emerson College poll; RealClearPolling’s average favors Talarico by 1.7 points. |
| Confirmed | The Talarico campaign filed a court motion to unseal two Paxton depositions from 2019 and 2022. |
| Confirmed | Beto O’Rourke lost to Ted Cruz in 2018 by 2.6 points after trailing in nearly every late poll. |
| Speculation | That Paxton admitted to crimes in a sealed deposition. A single unnamed source made this claim to MS NOW; it has not been independently verified. |
| Speculation | That Talarico’s current polling advantage means he will win in November. Forecasters describe the race as a toss-up, and polls this close are within their margins of error. |
Frequently asked questions
Who is running in the Texas Senate race?
Democrat James Talarico, a state representative, faces Republican Ken Paxton, the incumbent attorney general, for the seat being vacated by Senator John Cornyn in the 2026 midterms.
Who is leading the latest polls?
The most recent UT/Texas Politics Project survey had Talarico ahead 42 percent to 39 percent. An Emerson College poll taken the same week had Paxton ahead 47 percent to 46 percent.
How does Talarico’s position compare with Beto O’Rourke’s in 2018?
O’Rourke trailed in nearly every late poll but lost to Ted Cruz by only 2.6 points, finishing closer than the final polling average predicted. Talarico has led in several surveys, a stronger start, though analysts stress no poll is a prediction.
When is the election?
Election Day is November 3, 2026. Early voting in Texas begins October 19.
Why is Talarico’s campaign seeking sealed depositions?
The campaign wants two Paxton depositions from 2019 and 2022 released, arguing public reporting suggests his testimony raised ethical questions that Texans should assess before voting. The Paxton campaign disputes the characterizations based on the depositions.
What do forecast models say about the race?
Nate Silver’s FLIPR model placed Talarico’s chance of winning at roughly 59 to 61 percent, calling it a toss-up or slightly Democratic-leaning. Kalshi prediction traders priced the race at roughly even.
Related stories
- Data Center Controversies Reshape the 2026 Midterm Elections
- What Mitch McConnell’s Resurfaced Senate Video Shows
- Trump Threatens 50% Tariff on Canadian Autos as Trade War Escalates
Sources: Newsweek, University of Texas/Texas Politics Project, Emerson College Polling, RealClearPolling, Houston Public Media, The Texas Tribune, AP News, NBC News, MS NOW
